Essays · Method

Why a backtest on today's index is not evidence

Method · Marnello LLC

Quantitative work below the institutional tier is often tested against data that did not exist on the decision date. Two errors do most of the damage. The first is survivorship: a universe built from today's index members excludes every company that was delisted, acquired, or demoted along the way, and those are disproportionately the ones that performed badly. The second is restatement: fundamental data that has been revised after the fact is used as if the original figure had never been published.

Both errors flatter the result in the same direction, and neither is visible in the output. A clean-looking backtest with a high Sharpe ratio is exactly what these errors produce. An examiner does not need to understand factor models to ask the question that exposes them: what data was available on the date this decision was made, and can you show it?

The fix is not a better model. It is a data layer that preserves as-reported values with their original publication timestamps and keeps monthly snapshots of index membership including the names that later disappeared. That layer is costly to build and unglamorous to maintain, which is why it is rarely maintained below the institutional tier. Marnello's sample issues run on publicly available daily prices and state the survivorship limitation in each document; the validation record sets out the sample inputs against the production standard, row by row.

Essays are general research and commentary. They describe method and practice; they are not legal or compliance advice and not tailored to any firm. Standard disclosure applies.

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